Some time ago, I read the not at all pithily titled Crossing The Rubicon: The Decline of the American Empire at the End of the Age of Oil. The book highlighted the coming of peak oil (“the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline”), and argued, amongst other things, that the American government was complicit in 9/11 to justify the subsequent invasion of Iraq as part of a move to secure oil supplies. There was something about the CIA and drug money and a whole lot of other stuff which I can’t remember. But I do recall it was a good read and every claim was substantially supported (it was a very thick book).
The author was Michael C. Ruppert and he went on to predict the global financial crisis, a couple of years before it happened. Now there is a documentary called Collapse. It’s about 90 minutes of Ruppert sitting in a cellar, chain smoking and telling us in how many ways we are screwed.
The core argument continues to be peak oil. First he spends some time reinforcing how our current lifestyles would cease to exist without the black sticky stuff. He debunks alternative sources of energy and highlights the increasingly difficult search for new reserves. He is convinced that peak oil is almost upon us (there again, he used to be similarly convinced that it would arrive in 2008, and it didn’t).
There is a discussion on the world economy which he reckons relies on continual growth; an impossibility in a time of increasingly expensive oil.
Then he flashes up a slide of world population growth which looked something like this:
He argues that the industrial revolution and the arrival of oil has fuelled the frightening growth in the last couple of hundred years.
The overall cheery message is that the oil is running out, world economies will collapse, and the huge population of the planet is in for a very hard time.
It is hard to say he is wrong about the eventual outcome; unless the timing is more elongated than he suggests and we humans find other ways to provide energy. What is for sure is that Mr. Ruppert believes it, with a passion that has him in tears on more than one occasion. It makes for interesting viewing and I was concentrating pretty hard on what he was saying, until I was distracted by a snuffling noise to my left. She who must be obeyed was having a little sob. I had not realised that she had been watching, and absorbing, and believing; and was now convinced we were going to die very soon.
Still, she is a pragmatic lady, and was soon making plans to help ensure we would survive the coming storm. I am advised we will need to acquire a plot of land where we can grow vegetables and fruit. Solar panels. A well operated by a hand pump. A simple house.
I felt it was prudent not to mention the machine gun towers that would be required to keep away all the people hadn’t planned in advance, and would be now very keen on taking our fruit and veg. The fundamental need for a high-speed internet link was also not raised; necessary in case the world doesn’t go to shit and I need something to conquer boredom, in between long days hoeing the turnips or whatever nonsense this self-sufficiency lifestyle will require.
Personally all I think we need to do is move closer to Central Food Hall; so we can walk when there is no fuel left to put in the truck. Problem solved.
Comments 🔗
2010-06-21| genuinej saysErr, humans got very close to this far before the discovery of oil. I suspect there may be just a possibility that the human race will thrive post the oil age, not that it will bother you or me, but for the sake of SWMBO, my offspring and their offspring I sincerely hope that it does. Life will go on, with or without oil,Arabs, Israelis, aggro, starvation and famine, etc, etc. But who knows? Best to keep doing your bit for procreation.
2010-06-22| Camberley saysI’m glad we are having a serious conversation. I find it difficult to be funny at the best of times but on this topic not at all. I think the guy has an agenda (oil) and makes everything fit that agenda. My view is that the happening of ‘peak oil’ is not the point. There are two issues as far as I can see one is not that oil will peak, but the rate at which it declines. To put it mathematically, so people can poke fun, he is worried about the single differential of oil production being zero. I think he should be worried about the double differential being a big negative number.
If oil production declines slowly then the world will adapt. The big problem is the one shown in the graph. The population increase is not sustainable. So even if we find replacements for oil, even if we solve global warming we can’t continue to provide more food, water and get rid of the increasing waste caused by this population growth.
The question I want answered is how far is anyone getting with Sid Meier’s spaceship?
2010-06-22| genuinej saysCamberley makes a good point. Once Earth is full it’s just a matter of moving on to other planets,milky ways,galaxies or whatever.(hopefully with black holes)
2010-06-24| Craig saysIt is pretty bleak - dont forget over population can be reduced quite quickly either by mother nature or family planing.
With good leadersphip and less greed and Waste, I suspect we can support even more growth in a sustainable way.
Much good is still possible - we have to choose our leaders and role models far more carefully.
Can’t rely on being lead so better to try and be a good example. That is all anyone can do. Live simple do not take more than you need. Buy less junk and recycle, help out other people who are trying to improve their life.
Less on military and more on infrastructure, education, national parks and waterways.
From my understanding there is a hell of a lot of oil that is not even being mined.(perhaps unfortunately) Lots of car manufactures going electric or hybrid over the next few years also.
If you need a hit of hope - Check out www.ted.com
2010-06-24| Craig saysSpace: The final frontier.
… For the oil industry?
It appears so, as word leaked yesterday from high-level NASA officials that a multi-billion dollar, 10-year initiative had been launched to begin transporting oil back to Earth from Titan, one of Saturn’s moons.
According to scientists, this smoggy moon located on the outer rim of Saturn’s rings is said to contain more natural gas and other liquid hydrocarbons than all proven oil and gas reserves on Earth.
And with petro supplies declining at an alarming rate around the globe, the oil industry is now seemingly prepared to embark on the first-ever intergalactic oil exploration mission in history.
2010-06-24| Craig saysBP will run pipe all the way down….. Ok so its bollocks
But there are a heap of Hydrocarbons on Titan and sooner or later the numbers may make sense.
2010-06-24| genuinej says@ Craig. There is a heap etc..
2010-08-29| Billy saysJust noticed that you have had a recent visitor from Memphis, Tennessee landing directly on this post, standby for the arrival of the apocalyptic crowd en masse …..
2010-08-29| Spike saysIs that long distance information?